A few hours after US President Donald Trump announced a sudden pause in attacks on Iran in March, the White House warned its employees against using their positions to engage in insider trading in, among other things, prediction markets, unnamed sources familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal.
The warning from the White House came in an email sent to employees on Monday, March 23, the sources said. Earlier that morning, Trump had announced the pause on his social media platform, Truth Social. The announcement caused oil prices to fall by 14 percent shortly after. Davis Ingle, a spokesman for Donald Trump, confirms the authenticity of the email.
About 15 minutes before Trump's post on Truth Social, trading in oil contracts increased significantly. According to the BBC, there was far less trading activity at the same time of day on previous Mondays.
There is no evidence that the information has been leaked or that anyone in the Trump administration has used inside information to bet money on, among other things, the prediction market Polymarket.
The Associated Press (AP) news agency wrote on Wednesday that at least 50 new accounts were betting large amounts on a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, minutes before Trump announced it on Truth Social on Wednesday night Danish time.
The AP also wrote on Thursday that several members of the US legislative assembly, Congress, are demanding an investigation into Polymarket.
In prediction markets, users can bet on countless topics and thus make - or lose - money if a specific event takes place. The timing of bets on Polymarket shortly before US attacks on Iran and Venezuela has previously caused a stir. An unnamed American market strategist spoke to the Financial Times in connection with the trades.
- It is difficult to prove a causal connection, but one cannot help but wonder who is aggressively selling oil futures at that time - 15 minutes before Trump's announcement, it was said.
The international markets have been greatly affected by the war in the Middle East, and statements from Donald Trump have quickly sent prices both up and down.
/ritzau/
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