The oil price fell on Wednesday after announcements of a ceasefire between Iran and the US. Specifically, the price fell from around 110 to 95 dollars per barrel after the ceasefire announcement, but the level is still significantly higher than before the war, when the price was around 70 dollars. And according to Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, the energy market will increasingly be influenced by geopolitics and instability in the Middle East in the long term. This is reported by DR.
- We have to get used to the fact that the Middle East is not a stable supplier of energy in the same way that we thought before, he tells the media.
There has thus been lasting damage to the energy infrastructure in the region. Among other things, part of Qatar's production of liquefied natural gas has been affected, and Iraq's oil production has largely been shut down. It may take several years to restore production, especially in Qatar. According to Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, such conditions could mean that both oil and gas prices will remain higher for a longer period of time. At the same time, the market will be characterized by uncertainty, partly because transport through the Strait of Hormuz remains vulnerable.
The analyst also points out that the development could have political consequences, with countries working to a greater extent to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels – not only for the sake of the climate, but also for the sake of energy security.
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