Inflation in the eurozone countries has seen a marginal increase in January, with the preliminary estimate being 2.5 percent on an annual basis. This is according to figures from the EU's statistics office, Eurostat. In December, consumer prices in the eurozone countries had risen by 2.4 percent over a year.
Energy prices in particular have contributed to the small increase in inflation in January. In January, the annual increase in energy prices was 1.8 percent, according to preliminary figures, while in December it was 0.1 percent.
However, according to the figures, the largest price increase was in services. Here, prices rose by 3.9 percent in January compared to January 2024. In December, the annual price increase in services was four percent.
However, although inflation appears to have risen a hair's breadth in January, it has generally fallen significantly. This is emphasized by Mathias Dollerup Sproegel, senior economist at Sydbank.
This has given the European Central Bank (ECB) the opportunity to lower interest rates, and Mathias Dollerup Sproegel expects that interest rates will be lowered further in the coming months.
Sydbank's main scenario is that the ECB's interest rate at the end of 2025 will be 1.5 percent against 2.75 percent. today.
Tariff threat creates uncertainty
The weekend's tariff threats and concrete tariff measures from US President Donald Trump have brought an uncertainty factor into play, it says.
- If Trump opens a flank against Europe, we tend to think that it could cause the ECB to lower interest rates more than investors expect, as it could negatively impact growth in the eurozone, writes Mathias Dollerup Sproegel in a comment.
On the other hand, a trade war between Europe and the US could also raise inflation, it says.
However, according to Sydbank's expectations, tariffs will only have a one-off effect on prices and will not have a lasting impact on inflation expectations.
On Thursday, the ECB lowered its interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.75 percent. Subsequently, the Nationalbank followed in the ECB's footsteps and lowered its interest rate accordingly, so that the leading interest rate - the certificate of deposit rate - is now 2.35 percent, while the lending rate is 2.5 percent.
/ritzau/
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