It can be difficult to assess how great the risk is that Russia will perceive the West's continued support for Ukraine as a real threat to its territorial integrity - and thus act on it.
This is according to Flemming Splidsboel Hansen, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS). He specializes in global security and worldview.
The assessment of the threat level comes from the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (FE) on Wednesday evening in a new report. It states that the risk of the aforementioned is "increased". But it is not clear whether the risk is low or high.
- It could be that the Russians feel pressured, says Flemming Splidsboel Hansen.
- Of course, they are trying to push Ukrainian troops back and hit critical infrastructure. But if the Russians do not feel that this is sufficient and that they are really under heavy pressure, there is of course a risk that they could carry out their operations further, he says.
Does not want open military conflict with NATO
The assessment from FE states that it remains "unlikely" that Russia wants "an open military conflict" with the Western defense alliance NATO.
- The risk has increased, however, that Russia will reach the conclusion that the West's continued support for Ukraine actually constitutes a threat to Russia's territorial integrity after the annexation of the occupied territories in Ukraine, the report states.
What the threat assessment actually means is difficult to assess. However, according to Flemming Splidsboel Hansen, there is a probability that Russia will at some point try to carry out operations against countries other than Ukraine.
It could be against the countries that actively support Ukraine. For example, by targeting deliveries of weapons and weapons systems to the Ukrainian military. Or it could be done by targeting civilian train traffic, car traffic, gas or electricity. In that case, it would be intended as "harassment", which could impose some costs on various countries, says the senior researcher.
Question: When do you think Russia will be able to reach the conclusion that FE describes?
- We may be on our way there, says Flemming Splidsboel Hansen, who, however, predicts that it will happen in several stages.
- On the one hand, we have heard about some episodes that we have not been able to explain. For example, sabotage against the railway network in Germany, where there was uncertainty about what had actually happened, but it had major consequences.
- We have also heard about Russian activities in Norway with drone activities. So it is very possible that we have moved closer, he says.
/ritzau/
Text, graphics, images, sound, and other content on this website are protected under copyright law. DK Medier reserves all rights to the content, including the right to exploit the content for the purpose of text and data mining, cf. Section 11b of the Copyright Act and Article 4 of the DSM Directive.
Customers with IP agreements/major customer agreements may only share Danish Offshore Industry articles internally for the purpose of handling specific cases. Sharing in connection with specific cases refers to journaling, archiving, or similar uses.
Customers with a personal subscription/login may not share Danish Offshore Industry articles with individuals who do not themselves have a personal subscription to Danish Offshore Industry.
Any deviation from the above requires written consent from DK Medier.
