Although the official Russian statement is that a small plug must be put in the gas supply to Europe due to the need for maintenance, the real reason is completely different. This is according to Anders Puck Nielsen, a military analyst at the Danish Defense Academy.
- Russia hopes to be able to use the gas to stop the West's arms deliveries and support for Ukraine and in that way indirectly hit Ukraine and get the country to agree to an agreement to the Russians' advantage, he says.
According to the military analyst, there is no doubt that it is related to the war, which has lasted for over five months. But Russia cannot say that openly because it would be a breach of contract regarding the gas supply. On the other hand, Russian opinion leaders do not hide the fact that the goal is to pressure Western countries, which will soon freeze.
- When you follow the Russian news and hear what they say, there is no doubt that they expect it to have a major effect, and that when winter comes, Western Europe will be ready to do anything to get the gas back, says Anders Puck Nielsen.
The Russian company Gazprom announced on Monday that it would reduce the supply of natural gas via the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline from Wednesday. It will be reduced to 20 percent. of its capacity.
There is no indication that the West will stop arms deliveries
The announcement has caused a stir in the EU, where member states on Tuesday reached an agreement to reduce their gas consumption by 15 percent in order to reduce their dependence on Russia.
Minister for Climate, Energy and Utilities Dan Jørgensen (S) subsequently said that the agreement would be enough to get through the winter, even if Russia were to completely shut off the gas. The big question is whether Russia's plug in the gas supply will have the desired effect. Anders Puck sees no indication of this.
- To me, it seems that the West is good at finding solutions to manage without Russian gas, and I don't see anything at all to indicate that the West is about to stop arms deliveries to Ukraine, he says.
In his eyes, however, Russia seems to be sure that pressuring the Western countries is still the way to victory in Ukraine.
As things stand now in the war, according to the military analyst, neither Russia nor Ukraine seem to have the great strength to pressure the other side. In the long term, it looks like the Ukrainians will gain the upper hand in the war - partly due to Western support - Anders Puck Nielsen believes.
Ritzau
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