Denmark now appears to be on track to meet its climate target for 2030, according to the latest climate projection from the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities. But despite the positive reports, it still requires that all political agreements are implemented and that electrification is increased significantly, according to Green Power Denmark.
The projection estimates that Denmark's CO2 emissions in 2030 will be down to 22.2 million tonnes – corresponding to a decrease of 72 percent compared to 1990. This meets the requirements in the Climate Act, and according to chief economist Martin Ingerslev, there is reason for cautious optimism.
- If we are to increase the certainty of achieving the climate target, we cannot avoid having much more green electricity. We must replace gas and oil with large and small heat pumps in home heating. Our industry must switch to green electricity. And then we must keep the pace up in the electrification of road transport. We are world champions at producing it cheaply and efficiently, so of course we must also use green electricity to achieve our climate goals, he says.
Among the most important reasons for the improved projection is a sharp upward adjustment of expectations for electric car sales. According to the ministry, Denmark will have 1.4 million electric cars in 2030 – an increase of 500,000 compared to last year's assessment. At the same time, the CO2e tax on livestock and the green tripartite from 2024 will contribute to reductions in agriculture.
Still, there are several challenges. According to Green Power Denmark, the expansion of solar and wind energy has almost come to a standstill, and gas consumption is increasing despite ambitions to the contrary. The ministry estimates that 268,000 households will still be connected to the gas grid in 2030 – more than twice as many as expected last year. At the same time, Denmark is expected to continue to be a net importer of electricity in 2030, which is contrary to the political objective of net exports.
CO2 capture and storage plays a key role in the projection and is expected to deliver 2.9 million tonnes of reductions in 2030, but the technology is still new and requires attention. Green Power Denmark is therefore calling for more initiatives and a recovery of the pace in the expansion of green energy production.
- We are in a situation where the EU is screaming for green energy and has an ambition to become free from Russian gas by 2027 at the latest. Denmark must help the EU become energy independent. Not the opposite. That is why it is a pity that the projection now shows a slower phasing out of gas consumption in Danish households and companies.
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