Denmark may be very close to meeting the climate target for 2030 of a 70 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The Ministry of Climate Change's new projection estimates that emissions in 2030 will have been reduced by 68 percent compared to the base year 1990. Last year, the assessment was that with the political measures at the time, a 63.1 percent reduction would be achieved in 2030.
- This shows that we are very certain to reach the 2025 target and that we are closer to reaching the 2030 target than we expected last year, says climate minister Lars Aagaard (M).
The ministry's new projection also shows that the 2025 target of a 50-54 percent reduction will be met with 55.5 percent. The big move is mainly due to the fact that several models for measuring climate footprints have been updated.
The climate profile from agricultural lowland soils and forests has changed since last year. It is now assumed that low-lying soils emit less greenhouse gas and that forests absorb more than was assumed last year. The two elements together provide reductions for 3.4 million tonnes of CO2.
At the same time, sales of electric cars have exceeded expectations, which has increased the reductions in the projection. It provides 0.8 million tonnes of CO2 reduction.
The diesel tax has also been lowered in Sweden, and with the Danish Parliament's new diesel tax it is expected that more people will therefore refuel in Sweden than in Denmark, benefiting the Danish climate account.
New calculation models help
Climate Minister Lars Aagaard maintains that the improvements are mainly due to political measures.
- It is driven by an undercurrent of political decisions such as the CO2 taxation of industry, changed car taxation and the expectations of the very large subsidies for CO2 storage , he says.
However, the minister acknowledges that new calculation models are part of the explanation.
- It is clear that this year too we have become wiser about how nature behaves.
Both the current and previous governments have been continuously criticized for basing their climate action on technical solutions that may prove unsafe. Here, in particular, the new and unproven technology behind CO2 capture and storage has caused uncertainty.
The criticism got new oxygen when one of the government's tenders for reductions from that particular technology recently turned out to yield a smaller climate benefit than planned. It is also written into the projection as an element that moves the image.
There is also uncertainty associated with the new calculation models for, for example, forests' CO2 absorption. For example, a storm can topple trees and thus destroy millions of tonnes of CO2 storage.
Projections are subject to change
Lars Aagaard emphasizes that the new climate projection is based on assumptions that can change.
- It is important to state that this is a projection that assumes that a lot of things will happen, as the experts have now made the projection, he says.
There is therefore a need to constantly follow developments, for example for CO2 capture and storage, to ensure that the expected reductions follow.
- On the basis of this, you cannot say that we should sit back.
The new gap to the 2030 target is 1.5 million tonnes of CO2. Last year it was 5.4 million tonnes. It is agriculture in particular that needs to have new reductions of its emissions planned. An effort that is expected to be implemented through a greenhouse gas tax, which is currently being negotiated in the so-called green tripartite.
Agriculture will account for around half of future emissions.
- The new expectations do not change the fact that we must have boosted the transformation of agriculture, says Lars Aagaard.
/ritzau/
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