Climate promises are broken: The time of dreams for climate policy is over

The time when climate policy was about setting high goals for future achievement is over. Now the goals are being assessed on whether they can stand or fall – and in the past big week, several significant climate promises have been broken.

Climate Minister Lars Aagaard (M) has downgraded the government's ambitious goal of building nine gigawatts of offshore wind by 2030 to two to three GW instead. Likewise, the ambitions for a quadrupling of onshore wind and solar cells in the same year are markedly unrealistic, and so is the goal for the production of green fuels.

- We now note that the world has not developed so fantastically in the short term, said Lars Aagaard to Ritzau after the reduction of the ambitions.

In addition, the long-awaited CO₂ tax, which came into effect on January 1, was neutralized after just one month for the fishing industry, which, according to the government, is having problems converting diesel boats.

Concito: Only 20 percent chance of success with 2030 target

The government is adamant that the path to achieving the 2030 climate target is still open. But that path is full of holes that the transition can fall into.

The think tank Concito has made new calculations of Denmark's climate policy, where they have simulated the achievement of the 2030 target. The result is that there is only a 20 percent chance that the target will be met. The 80 percent risk of failure is due to the fact that there are countless climate measures within all sectors that must succeed at the same time, in the same year.

- As a politician, you must be very aware that right now there is a great risk that you will not reach the 2030 target. And if you add political uncertainty to that, the risk is even greater, says Torsten Hasforth, chief economist at Concito.

He highlights as an example that there are 17 different climate measures in the agricultural transition that must succeed simultaneously.

There is no doubt that some climate measures – even with good political will – will be delayed. For example, the government has a great interest in the expansion of renewable energy, even though it is being delayed due to market reasons, among other things.

If the target is to be achieved, there is no room for political vacillation as with the neutralised CO₂ tax for fishing, says Torsten Hasforth.

- If, every time you encounter resistance, it falls out in favour of lower reductions, it is certain that you will not reach your goal, he says.

Professor: not everything is wrong

However, the recent lowered target does not surprise Professor of Energy Planning Brian Vad Mathiesen from Aalborg University. It is simply that reality has hit the Folketinget. The development is predictable when you compare the high goals with the market development, he believes.

- It is predictable in the sense that the political goals have been set too high, and now the reality check comes in and provides a correction, he says.

Brian Vad Mathiesen still has ice in his stomach. Not everything for the green transition is as critical as it may seem.

There is 65 percent. solar and wind energy in the electricity system and lots of projects that are "jumping and dancing" to be realized. The heating sector is phasing out fossil energy, and in the transport sector the development for electric cars is exceeding all expectations.

- Not everything is wrong, even though much of the political debate gives the impression that we are in a time of crisis for the green transition. That is not my opinion, he says.

/ritzau/