Russia will be prevented from trading with the outside world if it is excluded from the Swift system, which banks around the world use. If so, it will be a "crippling blow to the Russian economy". This is according to Jonas Gejl Kaas, assistant professor of political science at Aarhus University and researcher of Russian foreign and security policy.
But the EU will not exclude Russia from Swift. This was stated by US President Joe Biden on Thursday. Swift is a banking messaging system used in international transactions. For example, European countries use Swift to buy Russian oil and gas, which is not currently sanctioned by the EU. But excluding Russia would put an end to that.
- If you take Swift on the table and exclude Russia, it is de facto also an exclusion of transactions that are necessary to buy Russian oil and gas, he says.
Countries such as Germany and Italy are very dependent on Russian gas in their energy systems. Both China and Russia have their own banking messaging system. Russia can therefore trade via systems other than Swift.
- But it's not that easy to do. Those you have to trade with also have to use that system, and that's where we have the problem. Swift is the most widely used bank messaging system, he says.
Jonas Gejl Kaas says that the Americans in particular have probably thought about politicizing Swift, and whether that will start a slippery slope effect.
- By kicking Russia out of Swift, it may be that other financial powers - for example China - begin to consider whether they want to run the risk of also being excluded in the same way at a later date. And it can be expected to accelerate the movement away from using the dollar as the primary currency in international transactions, he says.
You risk losing some of the indirect influence you have on China because the Chinese use a financial infrastructure that is currently in Western hands, he says.
Ritzau
Text, graphics, images, sound, and other content on this website are protected under copyright law. DK Medier reserves all rights to the content, including the right to exploit the content for the purpose of text and data mining, cf. Section 11b of the Copyright Act and Article 4 of the DSM Directive.
Customers with IP agreements/major customer agreements may only share Danish Offshore Industry articles internally for the purpose of handling specific cases. Sharing in connection with specific cases refers to journaling, archiving, or similar uses.
Customers with a personal subscription/login may not share Danish Offshore Industry articles with individuals who do not themselves have a personal subscription to Danish Offshore Industry.
Any deviation from the above requires written consent from DK Medier.
