On Monday, the annual maintenance work on Nord Stream 1, the largest pipeline carrying Russian gas to Germany and several European countries, begins.
Supplies are expected to be suspended for ten days while the work is carried out. However, governments, financial markets and companies are concerned that the shutdown could be extended due to the war in Ukraine.
Nord Stream 1 carries 55 billion cubic meters of gas a year from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. In June, Russia reduced gas supplies by 60 percent, citing a shortage of components. Europe fears that Russia will extend the planned maintenance to further restrict European gas supplies. This is reported by the Reuters news agency.
Closing will not be surprising
It would then jeopardize plans to fill up stocks for the winter and exacerbate the gas crisis that has already triggered emergency measures from governments and high bills for consumers.
Germany's Economy Minister, Robert Habeck, has said that the country should prepare for the possibility that Russia will shut off gas through Nord Stream 1 beyond the planned period until July 21.
- Based on the pattern we have already seen, it would not be particularly surprising if reference is made to some small, technical details that allow them to say that "now we cannot open it again", Habeck said according to Reuters at the end of June.
Russian government spokesman Dmitry Peskov has rejected the claim that Russia is using oil and gas to exert political pressure. According to Peskov, the closure is a regular occurrence.
There are other major pipelines from Russia to Europe, but supplies have been gradually declining, especially after Ukraine closed one of the transit routes in May. This, according to the Ukrainians, was due to interference by Russian occupation forces. At the same time, Russia has completely cut off gas supplies to several European countries, which have refused to pay for the gas in rubles.
Professor doubts reopening
Professor of energy planning at Aalborg University Brian Vad Mathiesen doubts that the gas will be reopened once the ten days of maintenance work have passed.
- I think we should be prepared for the fact that it may be a reality that in ten days we will not get any more gas from Russia.
He bases his skepticism on the fact that Russia has already significantly reduced gas supplies.
- This is actually another piece in the game that is being played with energy as a political weapon from the Russian side in relation to putting pressure on Europe, he says.
Brian Vad Mathiesen believes that authorities and state leaders across Europe can well come up with emergency plans. Because if the Russians first pull the plug on gas supplies to Germany, it will have drastic consequences throughout Europe. Including in Denmark.
First and foremost, it is the gas-fired households that must be secured gas. This means that some of the large energy-intensive companies will have to do without.
In previous years, the maintenance work has taken between 10 and 12 days and has been completed on time.
Ritzau
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