The EU economy is expected to grow by 1.4 percent both this year and next year. In 2027, growth of 1.5 percent is expected. This is according to the European Commission's autumn forecast, which was published on Monday.
This suggests that growth will end up being slightly higher this year than the Commission expected in its spring forecast in May. Here, the expectation was that growth in the EU's total GDP would end up at 1.1 percent this year. The expectation for 2026, on the other hand, has been adjusted downward by 0.1 percentage point.
A press release from the Commission states that growth in the first three quarters of the year has been better than expected. Initially, growth was primarily driven by increasing exports, because there was an expectation that customs duties would increase, it says. But growth continued into the third quarter, and the Commission expects it to continue further.
- Looking ahead, economic activity is expected to continue to increase at a moderate pace over the forecast period, even though there is a challenging external environment, the Commission writes.
In 2024, GDP growth in the EU ended at 1.0 percent.
Large economies continue to lag
Allan Sørensen, chief economist at the Confederation of Danish Industries, notes that growth has picked up pace a little.
- After a few very lean years in terms of growth, growth has picked up speed a little. The European economy will experience progress in the coming years, but it is not an impressive pace, he writes in a comment.
But there is a big difference between European countries when it comes to growth prospects. The largest economy, Germany, is expected to grow by 0.2 percent this year and is thus close to a standstill. Growth of less than one percent is also predicted in France and Italy this year.
Conversely, growth of over three percent is seen in both Croatia and Poland. The economy is also picking up speed in Spain, with expected growth of 2.9 percent this year.
- Seen through Danish export lenses, it is a shame that the Germans are struggling with growth. On the other hand, we can be happy that the Swedes have started growing, writes Allan Sørensen.
In Sweden, growth of 1.5 percent this year is expected to increase to 2.6 percent next year. The EU Commission also expects economic progress in Denmark, with growth of 2.0 percent this year and 2.1 percent next year.
/ritzau/
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