The pharmaceutical industry has been one of the driving forces in the Danish economy in recent years, and it will probably continue to be so going forward. This is assessed by the Nationalbank in a semi-annual forecast on Wednesday.
This raises the expectation for the Danish economy, so that growth is now expected to land at 2.4 percent. in 2024. In a similar report in September, the Nationalbank expected annual growth of 1.3 percent.
The expectation that the pharmaceutical industry will continue to contribute significantly to growth is based on equity analysts' expectations for the revenue of the largest Danish pharmaceutical companies. And so it is based on the assumption that the pharmaceutical industry's progress will be equally distributed between factories in Denmark and production abroad under Danish ownership, the report says.
The bank does not specifically mention Novo Nordisk, but the company is a large part of the explanation for the tremendous progress in the pharmaceutical industry in Denmark.
The reopening of the Tyra field pushes growth
In addition, the reopening of the Tyra field (a natural gas field, ed.) is also expected to lift growth significantly. The reopening is expected to contribute 0.5 percentage points to growth in the Danish economy in isolation. The current opening date for the field is currently set for March 31, 2024.
According to Tore Stramer, chief economist at Dansk Erhverv, the Nationalbank's upward adjustment of the growth forecast is in itself significant.
- It is a very large upward adjustment of the forecast, which is one of the absolute rarities, he writes in a comment.
- The previously expected slowdown in growth in the Danish economy has simply not materialized and has now forced the Nationalbank into a very large upward adjustment of their otherwise only six-month-old forecast for the Danish economy.
Had it not been for the pharmaceutical industry, the Danish economy would have shrunk by 0.1 percent. last year according to Tore Stramer.
However, in that case, it would have been a surprisingly modest decline in light of the headwinds that have otherwise hit the Danish economy, with high inflation and rising interest rates, says the chief economist.
- The bottom line is therefore that the Danish economy has surprised a lot, which has completely taken the Nationalbank's economists by surprise.
/ritzau/
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