Russian energy weapon fires with loose powder

For many years, the energy situation has been something that very few people were concerned about. However, that changed last year when Russia invaded Ukraine.

Russia is normally a major supplier of gas to Europe, but after the invasion, the taps were turned down, which sent prices and fear soaring. But it has been put to shame. Winter is over, and even though the heating season is not quite over, there is plenty of gas in stock in Denmark and Europe.

This means that the focus can be turned towards next winter, which was previously expected to be a problem, as Russian gas can only be used to a lesser extent to replenish stocks. But according to Frederik Engholm, chief strategist at Nykredit, we are in a very good position in advance:

- We see a very high probability that we will have abundantly filled stocks when we hit next winter.

Warm winter has been decisive

He estimates that with fairly normal consumption from here, we could have stocks that are more than 50 percent full when they need to be filled again. This is approximately double the status when we started filling them last year. According to the Danish Energy Agency, the Danish stocks were 74 percent full on March 10.

If the winter had been very cold, we would have been at 20-30 percent, while in a winter like this we are normally around 65-70 percent. At the Danish Energy Agency, Deputy Director Martin Hansen estimates that we will have more gas in the two Danish stocks than normal when they need to be filled again. He cannot put a percentage on it, but points out that the less we use in the future, the less we will need to replenish:

- If we continue to save, our scenarios show that enough gas will be filled in storage to get us through next winter without interrupting gas customers.

But if we consume as usual, it will be "tricky" to avoid it, he says. It is the mild weather and a great desire to save that have meant that we are well prepared in advance.

Had the energy crisis come earlier, the situation for Denmark would also have been different, as we are normally a net exporter of gas via the Tyra field in the North Sea. However, it is under renovation and is expected to reopen in the winter of 2023/24, so it cannot be used to replenish the storage.

Before the war in Ukraine, Russian gas accounted for more than a third of the gas in Europe, but after the invasion it fell to less than ten percent. Russian gas still flows here via pipelines through Ukraine and Turkey. But it is a relatively small part, according to Frederik Engholm from Nykredit:

- It is so small that if it disappeared, it would not change the whole thing. The greater uncertainty is whether we can count on getting as much liquefied natural gas as we have, he says.

The Danish Energy Agency is following the situation closely

Russian gas has largely been replaced by liquefied natural gas (LNG), which comes from the USA and Qatar, among other places. Here, however, we have been helped by the fact that economic activity in China has been down, which could otherwise have created more demand for gas.

The Danish Energy Agency is closely following developments. Deputy Director Martin Hansen points out that it is important that people and companies continue to save.

- It also depends on other things - for example, what kind of summer we have. If it gets hot and we in Europe will use a lot of gas to cover the electricity demand for air conditioning, that will also have an impact. I'm not going to say that there are no problems. But the picture looks more positive than it did before Christmas, he says.

According to Frederik Engholm from Nykredit, the way is paved for a quick replenishment if the other deliveries continue and the saving habits are maintained:

- It is quite likely that we can already have filled the stocks in late summer if we want to.

/ritzau/