Although the prospect of a possible global trade conflict creates uncertainty about the future of the Danish economy, the Nationalbank believes in relatively high growth in the coming years.
In 2025 alone, the economy is expected to grow by 3.6 percent. This is according to a semi-annual forecast published on Wednesday morning. In a similar forecast in September, the expectation was for growth of 2.3 percent this year.
- The relatively high growth in the forecast of 3.6 percent this year is due, among other things, to developments in Danish production abroad and the reopening of the Tyra field, says Nationalbank Governor Christian Kettel Thomsen in a press release.
The Tyra field is an oil and gas field located in the North Sea approximately 225 kilometers west of Esbjerg. In 2019, it was decided to decommission the original Tyra from 1984 because the drilling platforms had sunk so much that damage could occur in high seas.
The platforms have since undergone a rebuild, and the new Tyra 2 facility was put into operation in the spring. However, technical problems subsequently meant that full operation could not be initiated.
- Without these two factors, we estimate that the Danish economy will grow more subdued with growth of 1.4 percent this year, the director continues.
The Nationalbank also expects that growth in gross domestic product (GDP) will be 2.3 percent in 2026 and two percent in 2027. in 2027.
Trade war can stop growth
But the Nationalbank is not blind to the fact that a new reality has been created on the other side of the Atlantic after Donald Trump was inaugurated as president. He has thrown himself around with threats of higher tariffs on European and specifically Danish goods.
If the situation suddenly escalates, it could have a major impact on global trade, the Nationalbank wrote on Wednesday.
- Our analyses indicate that increased fragmentation of the world economy or a sharp decline in world trade could mean lower growth and higher prices -- both domestically and globally, says Nationalbank Governor Christian Kettel Thomsen.
Previous forecasts show that the Nationalbank does not always hit the mark with its forecasts. A year ago, it believed in GDP growth of 2.4 percent. for the whole of 2024. The growth ended at 3.6 percent.
/ritzau/
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