In November 2024, TotalEnergies was able to announce that production at Tyra II had reached its full technical capacity. This is happening with a delay of about two years. During that period, the Danish state has missed out on revenue.
DOI.dk has asked Danske Bank's chief analyst Jens Nærvig Pedersen, who has expertise in the global energy market, for an estimate of how much the Danish state has lost due to the delay.
- You can look at the previous economic forecasts. These are figures from before the restart was postponed. The North Sea revenues consist of tax revenues from the companies, kulbrinteskat and dividends from the North Sea Fund to the Danish state, explains Jens Nærvig Pedersen and elaborates with a cautious estimate:
- It was made up to three billion. DKK for 2023 and three billion. DKK for 2024.
However, there are several uncertainty factors in that figure.
- The development in gas prices is another uncertainty factor, he adds.
North Sea production: Minimal importance for the Danish state
However, the importance for the Danish economy of the production of oil and gas from the North Sea is not at all what it once was.
- When oil and gas production was highest in the zeros, it accounted for one and a half to two percent. of Danish GDP. At that time, production was a significant item. Today it would be 0.2 percent. of GDP, even though there is considerable uncertainty with the gas price, says Jens Nærvig Pedersen and gives a reason for the reduced importance:
- That's because there is not so much production anymore, and it is almost only gas now.
The golden age back in the zeros was not there either, before the Tyra field was closed for reconstruction in 2019.
- Before Tyra closed down, production was only half of what it was in the zeros, it is said.
North Sea production will not be as important again as before for the Danish state, even if production is fully up and running again.
- If you succeed in speeding up production, it will not be a decisive factor for the state as in the years 2005 to 2013. It is a minimal item now, explains Jens Nærvig Pedersen.
Trump's positive effect
However, unlike the oil market, the gas market is still subject to fluctuations.
- Today, gas prices are uncertain, and there is still an energy crisis in the EU – but it is not as bad as in 2022, he explains.
And although the US president is currently creating uncertainty about NATO and core democratic values, there is also good news because of Trump from an energy perspective.
- With Trump, unlike with Biden/Harris, more LNG will be produced in the world. The price of LNG is three to four times higher in the EU than it is in the US, although the price fluctuates, and the gas must be transported to Europe by ship. So with Trump, there will be more competition for gas, explains Jens Nærvig Pedersen and points out the possible positive effect:
- It should provide more stability on the gas market. On the energy side, it is a helping hand for companies and citizens who use gas in the EU.
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