Not more than seven years ago, the climate could decide the general election. The election in 2019, where the Social Democrats and the Red Bloc emerged victorious, was in the name of the climate, and election researchers have subsequently dubbed it the "climate election".
So far, there is little to suggest that the current election will be a new climate election, where taxes and pensions in particular have made the headlines. But voters have not forgotten the climate. On the contrary.
A new survey conducted by the research institute Voxmeter for Ritzau shows that climate and the environment are actually the most important issues for voters. 32 percent respond that the area is a top priority.
They do so, even though the climate as such has not featured very much in the election campaign, points out Kasper Møller Hansen, an election researcher at the University of Copenhagen.
- It is certainly surprising to see that it is the most important issue among voters. The climate has been stable for a long time at around 15-16 percent among voters, but now it has taken a jump, he says.
Environment is playing a bigger role in the debate
Rune Stubager, an election researcher at Aarhus University, also notes that the climate has not featured much in the current election campaign. But the environment, on the other hand, has, the election researcher points out.
- It is not so much emissions and CO2 that we hear about anymore. It is more about the environment and pollution.
Stubagager highlights the debate about the ban on spraying and clean drinking water, as well as the left-wing criticism of conventional pig production. Kasper Møller Hansen also points out that the climate has taken a back seat to the environment.
- Roughly speaking, we are back to the way we discussed climate and the environment in the 80s, when we talked about dead lobsters and chemical pollution from large companies.
The climate's retreat may be due to the lack of clear political dividing lines in the area, he says.
- Since 2019, there has been a fairly large degree of consensus in the climate area with the Climate Act and the goal of a 70 percent reduction. Most parties became climate-friendly. And that is why CO2 and emissions are no longer discussed to the same extent.
Rune Stubager shares the same assessment.
- My explanation would be that there is a broad consensus in the Folketing to be relatively ambitious in relation to our emissions.
Red advantage
When climate and environment score high with voters, it primarily benefits the red bloc, say the two election researchers.
- It is a theme that has historically benefited the red bloc and the parties to the left of the government, says Rune Stubager.
Voters simply believe that the red parties are better at handling the issue, explains Kasper Møller Hansen.
- If you think that the environment and climate are important, then you are inclined to put a cross next to a red party in the ballot box. So if the red parties want to maximize their votes, they just have to keep pushing that agenda.
A party like Venstre in particular can be squeezed on the issue, says Rune Stubager.
- If they are to try to keep some of their traditional core voters in the countryside, they can quickly get caught on the issue.
After climate and environment, elderly people are the most important issue for voters, the Voxmeter survey shows.
/ritzau/
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