The costs of a stable and robust energy supply based on solar and wind fluctuate by plus/minus 10 percent when looking at 60 years of weather fluctuations.
This is the conclusion of a new Danish study, led by researchers from Aarhus University, among others. It is reported by Videnskab.dk.
- Our study shows that with a focus on strategic reserves (of energy, ed.) we can achieve a stable energy supply with renewable energy that meets the goal of being CO2-neutral, says Ebbe Kyhl Gøtske, PhD. from Aarhus University, to Videnskab.dk.
According to Brian Vad Mathiesen, a professor at the Department of Sustainability and Planning at Aalborg University, it is "reassuring" that the researchers have concluded that an additional cost is within an interval of plus/minus 10 percent.
PtX provides flexibility
The researchers have examined 60 different weather years to investigate how much energy infrastructure needs to be built in an area.
They have examined how much energy can be extracted from renewable sources under varying weather conditions, while maintaining the requirement for CO2 neutrality.
They concluded that the weather years where the amount of renewable energy matched consumers' needs had an additional cost of plus/minus 10 percent compared to the average of the 60 weather years.
The additional cost in the study goes to the reserve capacity that needs to be used under "particularly difficult conditions", when there is too little sun and wind to cover the energy demand, explains Ebbe Kyhl Gøtske.
Reserve capacities include thermal power plants and energy storage, which must be ready to increase the supply of production capacity in the very few hours a year when the primary supply is not sufficient.
- We cannot create a green energy system without having power plants that can step in when there is no water and wind, says Brian Vad Mathiesen to Videnskab.dk.
The production of green fuels converted from electricity from the sun and wind – power-to-X – also plays a crucial role in ensuring a stable, green energy system, as it makes it easier to store the energy, explains Ebbe Kyhl Gøtske.
Technologies under development
The new study is based on a "conservative assumption" that the EU is self-sufficient, which is not yet the case. Today, the EU supplies around 40 percent of its own primary energy supply. The rest comes via imports of gas, coal, oil and biomass.
The results are therefore a little more extreme than what one would otherwise experience, as some of the challenges in the system could be remedied by importing energy from outside the EU's borders, explains Ebbe Kyhl Gøtske.
The model in the study is also based on a number of technologies, some of which are fully developed and in use, while others, such as fuel cells and CO2 capture, are still under development.
The green future depends on the technologies being fully developed and implemented in the real world - and this requires more investment and political attention.
So when is it realistic to expect that the energy supply will actually become green in Denmark?
- It's really hard to say, and I'm afraid I can't make a qualified offer, as it depends on so many parameters. There are many bottlenecks that can help delay the process, says Ebbe Kyhl Gøtske to Videnskab.dk.
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