We have become so dependent on gas from Russia that it is almost impossible to obtain a similar amount of energy from other sources in the world.
A quick solution could be to look towards ship deliveries from oil-producing states such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia, if the EU really takes its plans to cut imports of Russian gas by two-thirds by the New Year seriously. This is the assessment from Trine Villumsen Berling, senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS), according to Videnskab.dk.
- It will be really difficult to achieve the goal, and if we stick to it, we may make the wrong decisions along the way and replace fossil fuels with other fossil fuels, warned Trine Villumsen Berling during a seminar at DIIS' premises in Copenhagen, according to Videnskab.dk.
- It sounds really stupid to replace gas with gas, but predictably, the reaction to the crisis after the war in Ukraine has been to look for gas elsewhere than in Russia. This could make Qatar and Saudi Arabia our new friends in Europe – and in Denmark we have already talked about how we can extract more gas from the North Sea and sell it to the EU,« outlined Trine Villumsen Berling.
Lack of infrastructure
One of the problems with wanting to quickly reduce Russian gas is that we lack the infrastructure to import such large quantities of gas from elsewhere.
Right now, just over 30 percent of of the gas in the EU comes from Russia, and all supply chains and our entire infrastructure are designed around that system.
We will have to wait several years before we can complete the construction of pipelines to take gas from other sources and distribute it around the European system.
But such investments will boost the production of greenhouse gases and take the world in the exact opposite direction of what is needed to comply with the climate goals in the Paris Agreement.
- We need to realize that there is no quick-fix to this. New infrastructure will continue to be here for many years and help delay the green transition. We are therefore facing another major threat in the form of the climate crisis, points out Trine Villumsen Berling according to Videnskab.dk.
Will send other countries towards coal
The senior researcher also points out another problem with rapidly cutting back on Russian gas: If we vacuum up the market for gas, others will have to use more climate-damaging coal.
If Europe starts buying gas from either the Middle East or the USA, it could mean that other countries in poorer parts of the world may have to resort to worse alternatives than gas.
Gas emits less CO2 when burned than coal – but if you can't get gas, you have to use whatever else you can get your hands on. That will worsen the climate crisis.
Own responsibility
The senior researcher noted that it is our own responsibility alone that we are currently in a bind and having a hard time by getting rid of Russia.
As early as 1994, the later Prime Minister of Russia Yevgeny Primakov expressed that energy supply should be considered a weapon, and in the early 00s, a staunch Putin supporter was appointed head of the national Russian gas company Gazprom.
The plans were even to ramp up the next pipeline, Nord Stream 2, which, however, seems to have received its final death blow after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
- We failed to understand that Russian exports came with an additional cost in the form of dependence on a state we no longer trust, even though it was a clear strategy on Russia's part. Today, gas is a symbol of Europe's misconceptions about Russia's intentions, said Trine Villumsen Berling at the seminar at DIIS, according to Videnskab.dk.
- We now know that energy security is about real security. Three months ago, people asked why I was sitting in on meetings at the Ministry of Defense to talk about gas. I don't think I need to explain that anymore, they said.
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