Unusual activity in the oil and stock markets shortly before a Trump post on Truth Social about the Iran war has led some experts to suspect insider trading, according to the BBC and the Financial Times.
On Monday, US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he was postponing attacks on Iranian energy facilities. This caused oil prices to fall by 14 percent shortly afterwards. About 15 minutes before Trump's post, trading in oil contracts increased significantly, data reviewed by the media shows.
- It is difficult to prove a causal relationship, but one cannot help but wonder who is aggressively selling oil futures at that time - 15 minutes before Trump's post, an unnamed American market strategist tells the Financial Times.
Oil futures are agreements to buy or sell oil at a fixed price at a future date. For example, a seller of a contract can make money if the price falls.
According to the BBC, there was much less trading activity at the same time of day on previous Mondays.
The international markets have been greatly affected by the war in the Middle East, and statements from Donald Trump have quickly been able to send prices in both directions.
The BBC has also looked at futures on the US S&P500 stock index and the Euro Stoxx 50 index, as well as other markets. There were similar increases in trading activity here, meaning people were betting that the value of the largest US and European companies on the stock exchanges would rise just before Trump made his announcement.
Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, told the Financial Times:
- The White House does not tolerate any official who illegally exploits insider information, and any suggestion that officials are involved in this kind of activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible journalism.
The timing of betting on the prediction market Polymarket shortly before US attacks on Iran and Venezuela has previously caused a stir.
In prediction markets, users can bet on countless topics and thus make - or lose - money if a specific event takes place.
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