If the unrest in the Middle East continues, it could hit economic growth worldwide.
This is the warning from the OECD. It comes in connection with a growth forecast published on Monday.
The organization's economists are generally a bit more optimistic about the world economy than they did in their latest forecast. It was published in November.
The OECD now expects global growth of 2.9 percent this year, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous growth estimate.
At the same time, inflation is expected to fall in the vast majority of countries. Among other things, inflation in the euro area is now expected to reach 2.6 percent in 2024, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than predicted three months ago.
But this assumes that the conflict in the Middle East does not escalate and continues to disrupt global shipping traffic.
Attacks on Maersk's container ships in the Red Sea, among others, have meant that many ships are now sailing the long way around the southern tip of Africa when they are going from Europe to Asia or vice versa.
This results in a longer and more expensive voyage, which in turn results in higher freight costs, which will lead to higher consumer prices.
The OECD estimates that if the doubling of freight rates that has resulted from the attacks takes hold, it will lead to inflation that is 0.4 percentage points higher.
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