Extreme weather, economic tensions and misinformation. There are many threats to the global economy. But for 2025, the biggest is armed conflict.
That is the assessment of experts according to a poll by the World Economic Forum (WEF), which begins its annual meeting on Monday in Davos, Switzerland. Some of the world's most influential and powerful people gather here from Monday to Friday to discuss the world situation.
Almost a quarter of the more than 900 experts from universities, business and politics have ranked armed conflict as the biggest threat to economic growth this year.
Extreme weather due to climate change has gone from being number one on the list in 2024 to number two this year. Armed conflicts were number five in the same survey for 2024, but have surged this year as the biggest risk.
- We, unfortunately, have a record number of conflicts around the world, says Mirek Dusek, WEF director, according to AFP.
World leaders can go in two directions, he believes.
- In a world characterized by deeper division and more risks, world leaders face a choice. They can promote cooperation and resilience or face worsening instability.
Expectation of troubled world economy
The majority of those surveyed in the survey - 52 percent - expect a "troubled" world economy over the next two years. According to dpa, this is linked to concerns about changing trade policies and the threat from Donald Trump of new tariffs against several countries. The World Economic Forum opens on the same day that Trump is sworn in as US president.
- Many of those surveyed expect the next few years to be stormy or turbulent in the economic field, says Mirek Dusek.
- This indicates that there is apparently a sense of uncertainty about the future. We can assume that this is also related to the fact that we live in a very complex geopolitical environment.
Trump participates digitally
Trump, who will lead the world's largest economy, will have a major influence on the direction of the global economy. On Thursday, January 23 - three days after his inauguration - he can make the participants at the World Economic Forum more aware of his plans when he participates digitally.
It will be a "very special moment". This is what WEF Chairman Børge Brende, a former Norwegian foreign minister, says ahead of the meeting.
- There is a lot of interest in decoding and understanding the new administration's policies, so it will be an interesting week, he says, according to Reuters.
The business community has generally become more positive about the outlook for the economy due to, among other things, Trump's promises to reduce regulation. This is what Rich Lesser, chairman of the consultancy Boston Consulting Group, told Reuters. However, he notes that the underlying optimism is being limited by concerns about possible tariffs and a worsening relationship between the United States and China.
This is the third time that Trump has participated in the Davos summit.
There are many issues on the agenda during the week. These include global geopolitical and economic uncertainty, trade tensions, climate goals and the use of artificial intelligence to create better lives.
/ritzau/
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