Although the turmoil in the world may seem greater than it has been in a long time, the Danish economy is fundamentally doing well. This is the conclusion of the forecast for the Danish economy, which the Nationalbank published on Thursday morning.
However, the Nationalbank also warns that the forecast may change, depending on how the conflict in Iran develops.
- It is expected that the war will have a negative effect on global activity and at the same time result in higher inflation, but there is extraordinary uncertainty about both the size and duration of the resulting economic consequences, the forecast states.
It is particularly higher energy prices that may have an impact on Danish companies and private individuals.
If oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf are limited in the coming years, inflation could more than double to 4.5 percent, according to the bank's risk scenario, and economic growth could be halved to around one percent.
However, the Nationalbank is initially predicting economic growth of 1.8 percent compared to the 2.0 percent we achieved last year. Employment will increase by 38,000 people, while the number of unemployed will only increase by 2,000 people.
The main scenario also offers good news for employees and homeowners. Wages are expected to increase more than inflation, and house prices are forecast to increase by 6.0 percent during 2026.
/ritzau/
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