Scientists give the world three years to limit global warming

Time is running out. In the 2015 Paris Agreement, almost 200 of the world's countries agreed to aim to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, when fossil fuels began to be burned. But it looks increasingly difficult to meet the target.

A target set to reduce the consequences of climate change, which is becoming more severe with every decimal point that the global temperature rises. More than 60 of the world's leading climate scientists warn in a new report that action is needed. CO₂ emissions must be reduced. And it must happen quickly.

- With the current direction, there is a very high risk that we will reach and even exceed 1.5 degrees and even higher levels of warming, says Professor Joeri Rogelj from the British climate research institute Grantham Research to AFP.

The CO2 budget is about to be used up

In the annual report, which is considered the most updated status on global warming, the researchers have looked at the so-called CO₂ budget.

According to it, the world can emit 130 billion tons of CO₂ from the beginning of 2025 onwards if the planet is to have a 50 percent chance of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees. At the current level, the world emits approximately 40 billion tons of CO₂ per year.

The research thus shows that the budget will be exhausted in three years if we continue to emit greenhouse gases as we do now. This means that the world cannot avoid exceeding the limit. If there is instead a 66 percent chance of meeting the target, the CO₂ budget will be exhausted in two years.

- The remaining CO₂ budget is decreasing rapidly. The primary reason is that the world is failing to stop global CO₂ emissions, says Rogelj.

Every tenth of a degree counts for the most vulnerable

If the 1.5 degree limit is exceeded, it increases the risk of extreme weather events and climate-related disasters, for example.

The report also warns that the CO₂ budget for 1.6 or 1.7 degrees could be exhausted within nine years. This will make the weather and disasters even more severe.

- The best moment to have started taking climate action seriously was in 1992, when the UN Climate Convention was adopted. But now every year is the best year to start taking reducing emissions seriously. This is because every tenth of a degree of warming that we can avoid will result in less damage and less suffering. Especially in the poor and vulnerable part of the population, says Rogelj.

Everything is going in the wrong direction, warns lead author

Professor Piers Forster, lead author of the report, "tends to be an optimistic person," he says. But the report shows that CO₂ emissions are rising, while sea levels are rising and global warming is accelerating.

- If you look at this year's update, everything is going in the wrong direction.

- These changes have been predicted for quite some time, and we can directly link them to the very high levels of emissions, he says, according to AFP.

At the beginning of 2020, scientists estimated that we could emit 500 billion tons of CO₂ more and still have a 50 percent chance of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees. But in five years, the CO₂ budget has shrunk to 130 billion tons of CO₂.

2024 was the first year in which the global average temperature was more than 1.5 degrees higher than the pre-industrial level. However, the Paris Agreement is not considered broken because it requires that the limit be exceeded for a number of years.

Scientists estimate that CO₂ emissions must fall by at least 43 percent by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. In addition, this will require large amounts of greenhouse gases to be removed from the atmosphere.

/ritzau/