Climate Council: Uncertain whether agreements will deliver the promised climate benefits

Denmark may risk emitting more CO₂ than Christiansborg expects when the climate target must be met in 2030. This is because there are fundamental uncertainties about the effects of several of the climate agreements adopted by the Folketing recent years.

Therefore, the path to achieving the 2030 target of a 70 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is still not clear. This is what the Climate Council assesses for the fourth year in a row in its annual status report on Danish climate policy.

- It is an important point that there are lots of climate policies that in themselves have built-in risks, says Peter Møllgaard, chairman of the Climate Council.

- You probably have to live with a degree of uncertainty, but there are areas where it is still difficult to be sufficiently sure that what is the ambition is delivered.

Four areas with significant uncertainties

However, the Climate Council points to four areas in particular where there is considerable uncertainty about the reductions. Here, agriculture is highlighted, the calculation of greenhouse gas emissions from low-lying soils, the schedule for large investments in CO₂ capture and uncertainty about the results of the already agreed CO₂ tax for industry.< /p>

The uncertainties include millions of tonnes of CO₂ reductions, which may not occur or be so delayed as to prevent the achievement of the 2030 target.

For example, the Climate Council points out a significant uncertainty in the expectations for the effect of the CO₂ tax on industry. A large part of the tax's total reductions must come from three sources: the cement factory Aalborg Portland and two oil refineries.

The calculations behind the agreement assume that all companies will react the same to the tax - regardless of whether it is a horticulture or a cement factory.

However, it is not likely, the Climate Council believes, because the production method in a horticulture and in a cement factory are significantly different. It is, for example, more difficult for a cement factory to replace gas supply with electricity than it is for a nursery.

- It may have an impact on how a CO₂ tax reduces CO₂ emissions from the two companies. When the effects of the industry's CO₂ tax are to be calculated, it is therefore important to pay particular attention to the effect on the three major emitters, says Peter Møllgaard.

The government should consider a plan B

The Climate Council therefore recommends that the government either insures itself and the path to the 2030 target by making climate agreements that more than meet the reduction need, or clearly lays out a "plan B" for what can be done if climate agreements fail.

Climate Minister Lars Aagaard (M) welcomes the Climate Council's remarks and notes that they do not come after him.

- The Climate Council points out that the road to the 2030 target has not yet been built, and that is not a big surprise, because it is mainly the agricultural emissions that need to be clarified, and we are in that process now, says Lars Aagaard.

He also acknowledges that the Parliament's climate agreements are fraught with uncertainty. It is a premise that must be followed closely in ongoing revisiting of the agreements.

- It is also not surprising that the Climate Council points out that there may be other types of uncertainty. That is why every year we get a projection of how far we are, and plans have been made to revisit agreements, he says.

/ritzau/