First the Strait of Hormuz was declared open, then it was closed again, and on Saturday several merchant ships on the important trade route reported shelling from Iran. The narrow strait has been almost completely closed for the past several weeks and is therefore the center of world attention.
A veritable flurry of announcements managed to create global optimism and hope for falling energy prices in 24 hours. But this was quickly replaced by unrest on Saturday.
This also applies in Denmark, where it is closely monitoring when ships will again be able to freely sail through the important bottleneck. Around a fifth of the oil products traded in the world normally sail through here.
The drop in supplies has led to rising prices and warnings of a shortage, and the zigzag course over the past 24 hours "underscores how fragile the situation remains". This is the opinion of Lukas Lausen, head of global trade and investments at the Confederation of Danish Industry.
- The consequence is clear. Without free passage through Hormuz, the world will experience increasing costs and delays, which can quickly spread to higher prices for consumers and companies, he says.
Doubts about agreement
The course of events casts doubt on whether the US and Iran are on track to reach a permanent agreement that can replace the two-week ceasefire that was agreed on April 8.
Iran is strongly dissatisfied with the US blockade of Iranian ports. And that was apparently also the reason why Iran backed down on reopening the strait. A spokesman for Iran's military on Saturday - again - scolded the Americans.
- Unfortunately, the Americans, whose repeated breaches of trust are part of their history, continue to carry out piracy and maritime theft with their so-called blockade, the person told the Iranian news agency Fars.
Trump said Saturday afternoon at a press conference that "very good talks" with Iran are underway, but stressed that the United States will not be "blackmailed". But BBC correspondent Nick Beake expresses skepticism in an analysis.
- Trump has hinted that a landmark agreement may be imminent. That doesn't seem to be the case with Iran's latest move, Beake believes.
- But it's hard to know whether the bombastic media statements from both sides cover up a quieter diplomatic push behind the scenes, he continues.
Ceasefire expires soon
However, the parties are getting busy. The original ceasefire is set to expire on Wednesday.
President Trump has told Reuters that there will probably be new negotiations between the countries this weekend.
But diplomats have expressed skepticism about whether another round of negotiations can be set up in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, where an agreement was not reached last weekend.
Meanwhile, the Iranian navy sent out a radio message on Saturday, according to several ships in the strait. It read according to Reuters:
- Notice to all ships: In connection with the US government's failure to fulfill its commitments in the negotiations, Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz completely closed again. No vessel, regardless of type or nationality, may pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, hundreds of ships and about 20,000 sailors remain stranded in the Gulf, waiting to get out.
/ritzau/
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