Surprise at the climate minister's silence: "It's paradoxical"

In the annual climate projection, which has just been released, expectations have been adjusted upwards for how many households will be heated with natural gas in 2030.

In 2024, it was estimated that it would be 130,000 households, in the new projection it is expected that it will be 200,000 households.

This worries the mayor of Dragør, Kenneth Gøtterup (K), who has been trying to get an answer from the Minister of Climate, Lars Aagaard (M), for a long time about whether the government is sticking to its declared goal from 2022 of fully phasing out gas for individual heating by 2035.

In Dragør, it is experienced that it is very difficult to get citizens to join district heating projects when there is uncertainty about whether they can actually keep their gas boilers:

- When the minister and the government do not clearly announce an end date for gas - and the minister has announced a bit to the right and left about the future heat supply - it creates great uncertainty among citizens who currently have gas boilers. They think that if gas is going to be green, why should we take a position on district heating?, says Kenneth Gøtterup to DK Nyt.

Announcements about biogas create confusion

It is precisely the great expectations that Danish gas will be green in the future that have created confusion among citizens:

- There is a very, very great confusion about biogas, because the minister has said that we will produce so much biogas that it can supply Denmark, and then suddenly it doesn't matter to have a gas boiler.

The agreement from 2022 states that "it is the political ambition of the parties to the agreement that from 2035 there will no longer be homes in Denmark that are heated by gas boilers. As a transitional arrangement until gas boilers in households are phased out and replaced with district heating or heat pumps, gas consumption must be made green".

In a letter to 13 concerned mayors Lars Aagaard wrote, however, that "when viewed through climate glasses, it is not that important whether the heat comes from district heating, a heat pump or green gas". He also stated that "Danish gas consumption is expected to be 100 percent green from 2029".

In the new climate projection, however, this has been postponed to 2032. 

In Dragør it is now or never

In Dragør, 76 percent of households are heated with gas. In 2022, they started investigating whether they could get district heating for their citizens. Now, in collaboration with Tårnby Municipality, they have the opportunity to roll out district heating to Dragør, but without the collaboration it is not economically viable. 

If Dragør does not achieve a connection rate of 65 percent before June 1, the race is on for the district heating dreams in Dragør, because then Tårnby will continue with their district heating plans alone. In fact, 65 percent of the citizens have already asked to be given a binding contract to connect to district heating, but only 18 percent have handed in the contract - but the citizens are hesitating.

- The assessment is that this is the only chance to get district heating for Dragør. It's now or never, he says and continues.

- It is paradoxical to me that the government is announcing in 2022 that we will be free of Russian gas, due to the security situation in Europe. We must offer district heating if we can. We can, so we offer district heating. Two years later, the security situation has in no way improved, on the contrary, it has gotten worse. But suddenly the government is completely silent on setting an end date, or for that matter completely silent on saying that they stand by the settlement that has been made in the Folketing in 2022. It is really difficult to understand. It is also very complicated to explain to citizens that the government will not stand by their own agreement, says Kenneth Gøtterup.

Stop the political flirtation

At Dansk Fjernvarme, people are also wondering how to read the signals from the government right now:

- As long as there is political flirtation with the idea that there will be green gas in the pipes any moment, doubts are created about the necessity of making the effort that is required to bring the number down to the level that precisely creates a connection between the supply of green gas and our total consumption, says Rune Moesgaard, political manager at Dansk Fjernvarme.

Although the silence from Lars Aagard creates uncertainty about the government's intentions, Rune Moesgaard does not believe that there is a reluctance towards district heating:

- We note that there is a political ambition to phase out gas in 2035. But if you no longer believe that, then you must call for negotiations with your settlement parties, so that you can say that you now believe something different, he says.

And even if biogas can cover the Danes' need for gas in the long term, he does not see it as an argument for stopping the district heating rollout.

- Denmark is not an island. It is connected to the rest of Europe. Every time we phase out a gas boiler in Denmark, we remove some fossil fuel consumption somewhere else in Europe. If we have an overproduction of biogas in the future, we can sell green gas to our neighbors, he says and continues:

- If this had been in the electricity sector, then politicians would have thought it was perfectly fine that Denmark has a huge production of green electricity, which can then be exported abroad, so that we can help the rest of Europe. Why on earth don't people have the same point of view about gas?