American stocks have performed best on average during the periods when a democratic president has been in power in the US. It shows data for the shares in the broad S&P 500 index when looking at the development after the Second World War.
During that period, the index has risen by an average of 13 per cent. annually under democratic presidents and 8.2 per cent. under republican. However, the popularity of shares is far from just a result of a sitting president and his political beliefs, believes chief strategist at PFA Pension Tine Choi Danielsen, who has drawn the numbers.
- I believe that the most important thing for the stock market is the macroeconomic environment, she says.
Macroeconomics describes the overall movements in a social economy. The financial crisis in 2008 is a good example of the Republicans ending up as the big losers in this type of calculation.
Republican George W. Bush was in power during most of the subsequent stock decline, while Democrat Barack Obama took over when things went the other way again.
More recently, there is the energy crisis, which under President Joe Biden forced the central banks to send interest rates sky high. In the aftermath, many stock indices took a serious beating. This applied both in the USA and in Denmark. It can be difficult to pinpoint times when politicians have created lasting movements on the stock market on their own.
These days, however, sudden movements can be a sign of how many shareholders would prefer to see the upcoming presidential election end.
- Green stocks had a good week after Kamala Harris seemed to get the best out of a debate with Donald Trump, says Tine Choi Danielsen.
- On the other hand, we saw that they fell when Trump was previously strongest after a debate with Joe Biden.
Green Danish shares should hope for Harris
If you put on the Danish glasses, companies like Vestas and Ørsted should hope that Kamala Harris wins the election, the chief strategist believes.
- It is a question of a trade war, because if Trump wins, then he has been out talking about the increased tariffs here, especially on Chinese goods that are going into the USA.
- And when we talk about wind energy, we are 100 per cent. dependent on some parts that only the Chinese can supply. This can give the green companies some challenges, says Tine Choi Danielsen.
/ritzau/
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