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The landscape is plastered with solar cells in Yinchuan, northern China. China is by far the country in the world that invests the most in green energy sources such as solar and wind.
/Ritzau Scanpix

China may overachieve despite unambitious climate target, analysts say

China has for the first time released figures on how much it will reduce its CO2 emissions. The target is underwhelming, but China often delivers more than promised, it says.
25. SEP 2025 13.20
Energi
Internationalt
Klima

China is the world's largest emitter of CO2. It has been this way since 2006, when it overtook the United States.

China is responsible for almost 30 percent of global emissions, which mainly come from the burning of fossil fuels from, among other things, over 1,000 coal-fired power plants around the country.

But the fight against climate change is actually a priority for the Chinese Communist Party and President Xi Jinping, even though it may not sound like it. China is the country in the world that invests by far the most money in renewable energy sources such as solar and wind.

And now, for the first time, China has set specific figures for how much the country will reduce its emissions. Xi Jinping has previously said that emissions should peak by 2030, and that China wants to achieve CO2 neutrality by 2060.

But now, for the first time, figures are being put on the reduction of climate-damaging gases.

Too unambitious, experts say

China wants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by seven to ten percent by 2035 compared to the peak level. Analysts estimate that China's emissions have either peaked or will very soon.

At the same time, China aims to "do better" than the seven to ten percent according to the target.

China's efforts in this area are crucial to the global goals of keeping temperature increases below 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels to avoid the most catastrophic consequences of climate change.

Therefore, according to AFP, there is also broad agreement among analysts that China's goal is far too unambitious.

If the 1.5 degree goal is to be kept alive, China must reduce its emissions by around 30 percent from 2023 levels over the next ten years.

Can deliver more than promised

When the US's CO2 emissions peaked in 2007, they had been reduced by around 14.7 a decade later percent.

Andreas Sieber, co-director of the climate organization 350.org, calls China's goals "underwhelming", but at the same time notes that China often delivers more than promised. Therefore, he and several other analysts consider it very likely that China will reduce its emissions by more than the seven to ten percent.

This is not least because China is investing heavily in green energy sources. China is installing green energy at a pace that puts the rest of the world at a disadvantage.

But the country also continues to install coal-fired power plants, which are intended to function as a safe and stable source of energy in the event that production from solar and wind is too low on cloudy days without wind.

Lauri Myllyvirta is chief analyst at the think tank Crea, which focuses on clean energy and air. He is concerned that China has not set a specific year as the starting point for the reduced emissions.

When the starting point is from the peak level, "it opens the door to increased emissions in the short term," he tells AFP.

Most others, however, are more optimistic, writes AFP. They see the pledge as a clear sign that China has now fully committed to the green transition.

- The good news is that in a world driven by its own interests, China is in a stronger position than most to drive climate action forward, says Li Shuo of the American think tank Asia Society.

/ritzau/

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https://www.doi.dk/en/ptx/artikel/kina-kan-ifoelge-analytikere-overpraestere-trods-uambitioest-klimamaal

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