Shortly before a major UN climate summit in the United Arab Emirates, it is being emphasized again that much more climate action is needed.
The world's current climate plans are not enough to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, according to a new report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The goal of the agreement is to limit the temperature increase to well below 2 degrees and try to limit it to 1.5 degrees compared to before industrialization, when we started burning coal and oil.
But according to the new report, the plans are putting us on track for a temperature this century of 2.5-2.9 degrees above pre-industrial levels. According to Danish Inger Andersen, who is the director of Unep, there is no longer a person or economy left that is unaffected by climate change.
- We need to stop setting unwanted records for greenhouse gas emissions, global temperature and extreme weather, she says in a press release.
According to the UN's Climate Panel, the global surface temperature is 1.1 degrees higher than in 1850-1900, and the increase therefore appears to continue. If all countries live up to their climate promises, the increase in temperature could end up at 2.9 degrees this century, according to Unep.
2.5 degrees requires that promises with conditions are also fulfilled, and both scenarios require that plans be followed up with action. If current policies continue, we are headed towards 3 degrees. All three scenarios are associated with a 66 percent certainty.
Concito: We have very little time left to act
According to Anne Olhoff from the green think tank Concito, who is the scientific editor of the report, there have been no major improvements since last year.
- We have very little time left to act if we want to stay within the temperature goals in the Paris Agreement.
The report comes out once a year. Last year, we were on track for a temperature increase of 2.4-2.8 degrees - less than now. According to Olhoff, this is because the projections this year are based on several models. Both the temperature goals and the increase in global temperatures are an average. There can be big differences from country to country.
- If we talk about a temperature increase of 2.5-3 degrees, it can be up to six degrees or more in certain places in the world - for example, large parts of Africa.
The Danish People's Aid works in countries like drought-stricken Kenya, which are already feeling the consequences of climate change. Climate advisor Mattias Söderberg calls the report worrying reading. He points out that there are people behind the dry numbers.
- When greenhouse gas emissions increase, climate change becomes more severe. This means droughts, floods and wilder storms.
- All disasters that affect local communities around the world, he writes in a comment.
He hopes that all ministers who will soon be heading to the climate summit in the United Arab Emirates will read the report beforehand.
Minister: Creates a gloomy backdrop
Among those leaving will be Dan Jørgensen (S), Minister for Global Climate Policy. He points out that the report underlines the seriousness and creates a "gloomy backdrop".
- The bottom line is the clear conclusion that we need to speed up considerably, and that means that there is massive pressure on the largest emitters of greenhouse gases.
The report can be used in the negotiations as an argument for the most polluting countries to commit to more climate action. There are several concrete breakthroughs in play this year that could help to reverse the trend towards excessive temperature increases.
- There is an opportunity for the first time to have global targets for renewable energy and energy efficiency, says Dan Jørgensen.
/ritzau/
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