It was considered world-historic when the world community adopted a number of climate goals at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai two years ago.
The world must transition away from fossil fuels. Renewable energy must triple by 2030. And in the same year, the world's countries must double their energy efficiency.
But at the start of COP30 two years later, it now appears that the world's countries are still not on track to meet the goals from Dubai. This is shown by an analysis that the Confederation of Danish Industry has made based on figures from official sources such as the International Energy Agency.
- We must ensure that there is progress on the action side, so that we do not only discuss targets, says Anne Højer Simonsen, Climate Director at the Confederation of Danish Industry.
Consumption of fossil fuels is increasing despite more renewable energy
When it comes to COP28's overarching goal that the world should transition away from fossil fuels, there is still a very long way to go.
From 2023 to 2024, the world saw an increase in the consumption of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas, which brings consumption to its highest level so far.
This is happening even though the expansion of renewable energy is gaining momentum. Because when it comes to the goal of tripling renewable energy by 2030, the world has actually moved forward. The latest figures from the global renewable energy organisation Irena show that the capacity of renewable energy production increased by 14 percent in 2023 and 15 percent in 2024. The projection thus shows that a further 7.7 percent increase is needed to reach the target of tripling by 2030.
The two developments show one of the dilemmas of the transition. Because even though green energy production is growing, the world's total energy consumption is increasing to such an extent that fossil fuels are still in demand.
- It is not enough that we expand with more renewable energy. We must also transition away from fossil fuels, says Anne Højer Simonsen.
Great potential in higher energy efficiency
Here, COP28's third major goal is particularly relevant. Because with higher energy efficiency, it will be possible to overcome precisely the development that growing energy consumption still has to be solved with fossil fuels. At COP28, the world's countries agreed that energy efficiency should double by 2030.
Yet, the great potential is still largely untouched, according to the Confederation of Danish Industry. The rate of more energy efficiency has only been a quarter of what is required to achieve a doubling by 2030.
For the Confederation of Danish Industry, the lack of achievement does not serve as an example that the COP system's goals may be oversold. On the contrary, it is an opportunity to draw the more climate-sceptical parties to the trough and show specific places where action can be taken, believes Anne Højer Simonsen.
- This is something we have decided. There is global agreement. It is relatively simple compared to some of the more complicated negotiations that the COP system can offer.
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