The path to the 2030 climate target has once again been shortened at the desk. New calculations from Aarhus University show that low-lying soils will emit 100,000 tons of CO2-equivalents less than expected in 2030. This is according to Climate Minister Lars Aagaard (M).
- These are small movements. This is not a dramatic reduction in emissions, but we count it all when we make the climate projection, he says.
The new figures are published as part of Aarhus University's research into the climate impact of low-lying soils. This follows in the wake of a heated climate debate on the same topic.
In the spring, the researchers from Aarhus published a first partial report on their work. It showed that low-lying soils stop emitting greenhouse gases earlier than expected. This prompted Climate Minister Lars Aagaard to come forward and announce that the climate target for 2025 had probably been met with the new figures.
Shortly afterwards, however, the scientists expressed surprise at the announcement. They were still awaiting the second interim report, which could change the picture again and potentially show increased emissions from the soil.
Minister takes issue with researchers
It has now arrived, and according to the minister, the new studies show that the fears were unfounded. This makes him stick to the researchers.
Question: Lars Aagaard, what do you think of this whole process now?
- I think that question should be asked to the researchers who felt the need to speak out before the research work was completed, he says.
However, senior researcher Steen Gyldenkærne from Aarhus University's National Center for Environment and Energy, who is responsible for the new calculation, does not want to enter into that discussion.
- I do not want to politicize our calculation. We do it on the best professional basis, he says.
The reduction from the new calculation consists of several elements. The researchers have found that so-called thin low-lying soils, which have a peat layer of six to 12 percent, emit slightly more than expected.
Conversely, it is now taken into account that more low-lying soils are covered by water, which encapsulates greenhouse gases and thus lowers the estimated emissions from them.
This gives an overall reduction in emissions from low-lying soils in 2022 of three percent, while also lowering the assessment of emissions back to the base year 1990, from which the reduction in the climate target is calculated.
Based on this knowledge, the Ministry of Climate calculates that this corresponds to a reduced emission of 100,000 tons in 2030.
/ritzau/
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