Time is running out for the EU's sanctions against Russia. If the EU countries do not agree soon, the sanctions will expire on January 31. But so far, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has not dropped his threats to veto.
Therefore, the pressure on Hungary is now really increasing ahead of a meeting of EU foreign ministers on Monday. But despite the time pressure, there is optimism in Brussels about reaching a solution so that the sanctions can be extended for another six months.
- We are working on an extension of the sanctions against Russia. We see no other option than for it to be extended in the coming days, says a senior EU diplomat.
Trump's line gives optimism in the EU
In Brussels, the belief in a yes from Orbán is particularly linked to the line taken by the newly inaugurated US president, Donald Trump.
While there were doubts before the inauguration whether Trump would take a more Russia-friendly line, a clearer picture of Trump's intentions has emerged since the inauguration.
Trump has thus failed to lift any sanctions against Russia despite a storm of presidential decrees in the first days after his inauguration. On the contrary, he has threatened Russian President Vladimir Putin with new sanctions if he does not come to the negotiating table and contribute to a peace solution. This eliminates Orbán's strongest argument for not extending the sanctions, according to the assessment in Brussels.
An end to the sanctions would mean that Russia would once again be able to freely sell oil, gas and other raw materials while the war in Ukraine continues. Russia would also be able to import a number of components for the production of military equipment, and hundreds of Russian individuals and companies would also escape the sanctions.
In addition, it could lift the freezing of money from the Russian central bank. In the worst case, this would mean that Russia would receive a large sum of billions that many EU countries otherwise hope could go to the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Orbán's wishes go against the EU's intentions
On Friday, according to Reuters, Orbán repeated his criticism of the sanctions. He believes that the EU sanctions have caused Hungary economic damage of 19 billion euros. This corresponds to more than 140 billion. kr.
- Now the question of continuing the sanctions is on the agenda, and I have pulled the brake and asked EU leaders to understand that this cannot continue, Orbán told Hungarian radio on Friday, according to Reuters.
However, in Brussels there is hope that a way can be found to appease the Hungarian leader. In other words: Orbán must have something in return to lift his veto. The problem, however, is what Orbán wants. This goes directly against the EU's intentions.
EU Commissioner for Energy and Housing Dan Jørgensen has set the goal of making the EU independent of Russian energy. But on Friday, Orbán said, according to Reuters, that he wants the EU to persuade Ukraine to resume gas transit from Russia to Europe.
Hungary believes it has been particularly hard hit by the sanctions against Russian energy because, due to its geographical location, it is more difficult to get energy from, for example, the United States.
/ritzau/
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